Miss Hong Kong 2014

[samuel]

OK, despite a slow start and the outrageous cancellation of the overseas recruitment process, the semifinals of the pageant start tomorrow!

Such a pity #10 Sabrina withdrew from the pageant. She had potential to do well.

Here are my top 10 picks for the finals on August 31, 2014. Unforunately, I will not be able to watch the finals because I'll be on vacation.

After looking at the girls' photos and their promo videos AND particularly their Okinawa special, I have made my selections.

Some thoughts I have:

#1 Didn't shine as much as I thought. But remains strong though.

#2 speaks like a HK girl... but she is one of the prettier girls this year but it's hard to tell if she'll make it or not. She even told the public to NOT vote for her..... sounded a little pushy and this may draw viewers away from supporting her lol.

#3 Is Cantonese her second language? She has a sweet look but I'm afraid the viewers may vote her off because of her accent.

#4 I think she has big, small eyes. She maybe a good speaker like #2 though so who knows?

#5 Good speaker but facially not the strongest.

#6 Sounds a little timid in her initial introduction (short-video for introducing contestants #5-8) but looks good in her promo. Dance teacher.

#7 Law student and speaks very well. Photogenic and sweet looking. Expect her to do well in finals.

#8 I think she is one of the former Miss Chinese Vancouver contestants right? She reminds me of Crystal Lee (MSHK 2010 Miss Photogenic and 3rd RU) but in this competitive year, I think she will not make it. But, Fairchild training might allow her to make the finals in the end, who knows?

#9 Strong. Liked her sky-diving challenge and facially one of the strongest.

#10 Still on the fence with this one. She was originally no. 17 in the preliminaries but came in to replace Sabrina (who would've done well if she didn't withdrew. Gosh, why didn't she compete after making sure her contract ended entirely??). She seems to be a good speaker but given she received lesser training than the other 15 girls and was a last-minute replacement, I think she may not make it. We'll see what happens.

#11 YES, big yes!! She sends a very genuine, girl-next-door feeling. Facially one of the strongest and if Sabrina didn't withdraw, I think she'll give her a run for the money. I guess #1, 7, 9, and 15 are her only real threats for now. She also won Tourism Ambassador award so expect her to make top 5 AT LEAST.

#12 She has a sweet look and also speaks well. I think the public will like her.

#13 Man was she outshined by #14 in her video! Her voice is a little distracting too. Facially not too bad but not sure if she'll make it.

#14 Alt. all the girls are college graduates this year, she has the highest education. Good speaker and confident presentation. I see the judges putting her through. Only way she will get cut is by the public vote.

#15 Sweet and as a former runner up at Miss Chinese Vancouver, we all know how well their delegates do at MSHK. DESPITE CANCELLING OVERSEAS RECRUITMENT, THE FUNNY PART IS TVB CHOSE THREE FORMER MISS CHINESE VANCOUVER CONTESTANTS and one Miss Sydney Chinese contestant (forget their actual placements by the way). Out of the three former MCV contestants, Veronica seems to be the strongest. Her high placement at MCV and training at Fairchild will help her. Can she become the first Miss Friendship to win the crown by default???!? We'll see what happens.

#16 In the promo video, her nose didn't see that distracting. But... in the Okinawa special program, her nose was very distracting. Maybe because the camera was shot from an angle below her nose (which I don't know why the crew did that because it revealed #16's flaw). If people say they can't take Miss Lau (currently starring in the TVB drama, Good and Evil as "Gillian"), unfortunately, I think her nose is much worse. We'll see if the public and judges can overlook her nose. One thing to mention though - she is 5'10" and the judges will notice her height. Rarely do we see such tall girls compete at MSHK. However, only one tall girl has won MSHK - 2008 (who is considered by many as a irresponsible MSHK) and height doesn't seem to matter that much as compared to Miss Universe or other national pageants.

Out of the 16 contestants chosen, I predict the six below will be eliminated in the following ways:

The three eliminated from the judges are: #2, #5, #10

The three eliminated from the public are: #4, #8, #16

On the verge of being eliminated (in order of most to least likely to happen): #13, #6, #3

Shoo-ins for the top 10 (expect them in the finals on Sunday):
#1, #7, #9, #11, #12, #14, #15

My current ranking AS OF AUGUST 23, 2014 (first to sixteen from top to bottom):

#11
#7
#9
#1
#15
#12
#14
#3
#6
#13
#10
#2
#8
#5
#16
#4

[samuel]

Let me add:

This year's batch is one of the best MSHK has had in recent years. All the girls can make the top 10 one way or another. It was quite tough to come up with the girls that are definitely outs for me.

As you see my full ranking as of now, #10 and #2 are the next ones I feel have the best potential to make top 10 but are not on my list. We shall see what happens tonight.

FULL predictions for the finals will be posted after the semifinals.

[samuel]

My semifinals thoughts:

What a nice pageant!! It was fast-paced and not that draggy like last year. Lots of suspense in announcing the top 10 - red/blue light process and how they announced the 3 girls that were eliminated by the judges. Liked the format this year.

In terms of predictions - I got 9 out of 10 right!! I am very satisfied with the results. The only one I left out was #5 CK Leung who advanced over #14 Fiona. I definitely could see how Fiona got eliminated. As impressive her resume is, she did sound a little arrogant and overconfident.

And - I GOT 4 of the girls eliminated from each group - judges and public right!! I knew #16 and #8 will be eliminated due to their lack of facial beauty. They did give very good performances though but in this competitive year, facial beauty matters a lot. If they competed in other years, they probably would've advanced.

Indeed #10 and #2 got eliminated by the judges. #10 didn't make the top 16 initially and I guess that played a major role in the elimination process. #2 looked pretty but she didn't quite have the education and gave a weak interview. Using her personality as a selling-point for the interview didn't impress me. Adding to that - I found her voice to be a little distracting... She just didn't speak like a beauty queen and hence that's another explanation on her elimination.

#4 - I think she may have ranked the lowest out of all 16 girls! Not only did she gather a lot of votes from the public to foul her, she gave one of the weakest interviews. Clearly overshadowed by the MCs and constantly showing-off her business experience certainly didn't help either. I guess even if the judges saved her, the public would've voted her off so she must have been the weakest link.

One interesting thing to consider though - the judges votes prevail over the public vote.

[samuel]

Now that I mentioned the 6 eliminated girls, let's talk about the top 10 semifinalists.

1. Jan

I thought her interview was good! Unfortunately she has a lot of negative press and plastic surgery rumors. She looks pretty despite the surgery (if she did so) and I think she has a shot at the crown.

3. Linna

Hmm, I knew she had something. Initially in the #1-4 promo video, I chose #1 and #4 over #2 and #3. And #3 spoke non-fluent Chinese. But after watching the Okinawa special, I quickly changed my mind. Linna shined despite her struggle with Chinese. She looks photogenic indeed (not surprised if she wins Miss Photogenic, actually many girls are photogenic this year). She is also a former Miss Chinese Vancouver veteran and we all know how well those girls do at MSHK and Miss Chinese International. She might win the hearts of the judges! But I don't think she'll win the crown in the end.

5. CK

Many people like her on Weibo. I don't see it though. She has the sexy look but I don't quite like her nose. And MSHK rarely chooses the sexy girls so I don't think she'll win.

6. Yammi

She looks pretty in the promo but she seems a little timid. Her dance was good though and I'm not surprised she made it. But I think she'll need to do more to place high in the finals.

7. Katherine

She was one of my major favorites going into the semifinals. At some angles, her nose looks distracting but she looks fine in photos. The only thing I'm worried though is whether she'll gather a lot of votes from the public. She speaks well so I don't think she'll clam up but wish she didn't flatter Carol Cheng in her interview.....

9. Erin

Her interview wasn't the best. But, she looks pretty and if she polishes up her interview skills, I see top 5, or maybe even top 3. But, given she is from Mainland china, I don't think she'll win the title, but who knows? Rebecca Zhu did in 2011.

11. Soffie

Different spelling of the name - Sophie or Soffee but she's the hot press favorite to win after #10 Sabrina withdrew from the pageant. She looks like the 1990 2nd RU Miss Leung at some angles. She also looks like Roxanne Tong (top 6 finalist at MSHK 2012). Is that a good thing? Roxanne performed well in 2012 and also won the Tourism Ambassador award but failed to make the top 3 that year. Will Soffie suffer the same fate?

Even though she looks pretty in some photos, at some angles, she doesn't look as stunning. And for some reason, I think she'll either win 1st or not make top 3. Her look doesn't look like 2nd RU or 1st RU look (despite the Miss Leung comparison). Therefore, I am not sure about her actual placement, but top 5 should be guaranteed.

12. Miss Choi

She looks pretty and cute in her Okinawa special. But, like the press pointed out, she was a little nervous in the semifinals. I don't think she'll place high on Sunday. Top 5 is possible.

13. Crystal

She almost tripped during her entry. For some reason though, I cringe when she speaks. Facially she looks good but she seems too gentle to be Miss Hong Kong.

15. Veronica

Compared to Crystal, Veronica has a soothing voice. Friendly and gracious. If logic applies, she may win on Sunday. WHY?

Things working in her favor:

1. Miss Chinese Vancouver training.
2. The successful trackrecord of Vancouver crossovers to MSHK.
3. Carat won in 2012 and placed as 1st RU to Eliza in MCV 2009. Veronica also placed as 1st RU and yes to a girl who gone on to win MCI 2013 (Gloria Tang). BTW, I want to point out, both Gloria and Veronica speak in the same way - gentle.... I wonder if Fairchild trained them to speak like that? But, anyway, if so, can Veronica win MSHK just like Carat did??? Both girls who beat them gone on to win internationally so anything can certainly happen.

However, things working against her include:

1. Miss Friendship title - No winner of this award has gone on to win the crown. Only Irene Lo assumed the title in 1981 but she was originally 1st RU though.

2. Scar near her breast - The press pointed out she has a birth scar near her breast. I think the judges may be distracted by this but it's something minor.

3. Facially - Nicknamed as the big mouth "Halina Tam," Halina won the title in 1994 but she is not considered one of the facially pretty Miss Hong Kongs. I can see her winning like Halina (beating out the major favorites), but facially, she is not as pretty as #11, #3, #1, and maybe #9.

Nevertheless, Veronica has a sweet look and beautiful smile so I think top 3 is possible.

[samuel]

With all my thoughts in... I have thought hard and decided on the final predictions below.

Anything can happen on Sunday because viewers vote for 1 girl before the top 3 announcement and ACTUALLY RANK THE TOP 3 after they're announced AND the final results follow the viewers' rankings. This was the same system that was suppose to be used in 2012 but the server crashed that year and it became a scandal in the end...... I actually like last year's 50% viewers + 50% judges system.

Therefore, if big favorites don't make the top 3 or are not as popular among the public, they may not win the title.

However, this can turn into a advantage for big favorites since the public are more familiar with them and will most likely gather more votes than cold doors unless the big favorites clam up.

One thing I'm unsure though - will the public's votes for picking their favorite prior to the top 3 announcement count towards their final score for the top 3?? Does this mean the rankings for 4th to 10th place are determined by last year's format??

It was such a tough task coming up with 6th to 2nd place predictions..... anyone can flip-flop and there will be surprises since it's so competitive this year.

With that said... my final rankings are:

Miss International Goodwill (hopefully this award is given out on Sunday): #15 (her voice is very soothing and her smile is very bright. I see her winning this award. There are also many other contenders for this title - #3 for her ability to speak other languages and #11. #7 studies HK law and other girls are also poised and eloquent, so this is truly anybody's game.

Miss Photogenic: #3 (her smile looks very good and when she appears, I stare at her, e.g. when she was called into the top 10. And given a panel of female judges are voting for Miss Photogenic this year, she has a good chance. Remember 2012's winner lol??). Alternative for this award is #11. I can see #11 winning this award if she looks consistent at different angles.

10th place: #6
9th place: #13
8th place: #5
7th place: #12
6th place: #9 (Can do well too)
5th place: #7 (I do like her a lot and wish she places higher but the public votes she gathered in the semis may hurt her but we'll see if the public forgets that. She has eloquence and beauty to do well)
4th place: #3 (I can definitely see her pull-off a top 3 placement. Her Cantonese is not so good but there have been many girls who placed in the top 3 despite struggling with Cantonese - Theresa Lee, Annemarie Wood, Shirley Zhou (1995), Martha Yuen, Victoria Jane Jolly, etc. Even though she's cute and pretty, I think she'll fall a little short of making the top 3 this year because the quality of girls is too competitive. But, she can place as 2nd RU or even 1st RU!)
3rd place: #15 (Another tough choice I made.. I can see her place as high as 1st RU. She has a very charming smile. I placed her here because facially, I think her mouth is a little too big and I think she isn't as pretty as Jan or Soffie. Veronica talks well, has great pageant experience, and is very poised too, so she has what it takes to pull off a higher placement. It will determine on whether the public votes for her or not. But facially was the main reason why I placed her here).
2nd place: #1 (I am taking a little risk on placing her here. Even though I didn't read/see any of the gossip she has been having, the press doesn't seem to favor her and that's certainly a problem. But, there have been winners with gossip but gone on to win - Tracy Ip, Aimee Chan (for rumors of breast implants), Sandy Lau, and even Whitney Hui (she placed as 2nd RU) so Jan can make the top 3. She was a favorite of mine since the very beginning and she looks very beautiful on screen. Hopefully the judges can overlook her negative gossip. She is one of the best speakers in the pageant and facially is one of the strongest this year. If TVB wants to promote a fanda, she is one to look for. We're just see if the judges can overlook her gossip news - plastic surgery rumors and "lies" that the press claimed she made).
1st place: #11 (Soffie.. Facially, she looks good in some angles but during the top 10 announcement, she looked somewhat different (??). Anyway, she is so calm. She knows how to use her background to her advantage. I like her she claims to be a local Hong Konger in an attempt to impress to the Hong Kong public. On top of that - she is the major press favorite and has received the most attention out of all the girls. Her smile is definitely one of the best. Since the public votes for the top 3, unless she doesn't make the judges' top 3, otherwise, she will most likely be voted number 1 for the HK public. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, I think she'll either win or not make the top 3 enitrely - just like Roxanne Tong or Kenix Kwok. I think she doesn't have that 1st or 2nd RU look. Let me add - I think Jan will also either make 1st RU or stop at top 5. She doesn't have that 2nd RU or winner's look. As for Veronica.. like I said, hard to say. Congenial girls have done well in recent years - Fu Sze Sze, Grace Wong, Skye Chan but I placed her lower than Jan because I find Jan to be prettier.

Just my thoughts, I hope nobody is offended for what I said.

Even though I can't watch the pageant live or on TVBUSA, I can't wait to see the pageant online afterwards. May the best girl win!!!!!!

[nwooxl1]

Hi Samuel

When you say "cancellation of the overseas recruitment process", does that mean winners outside of Hong Kong will not be allowed to participate? Is that due to recent events in Hong Kong?

Regards
Norman

[samuel]

Hi Norman,

So happy to see a response from somebody in a long time!! I usually post my predictions here BUT nobody comes here to comment.

Some interaction finally.

In regards to your question, yes, overseas girls who are eligible to compete in Miss HK are no longer able to participate in MSHK through the overseas process. That means, TVB will not interview and select the girls through local tv stations such as TVBUSA or Fairchild or TVB Europe/Australia.

Girls who want to participate need to travel to HK and apply as a local candidate. This may possibly mean they need to sponsor their own airfare as I don't think TVB reimburses all the overseas girls that come to HK to interview. This was not the case from 1991 to 2013. All girls selected was given a round-trip airticket to HK to compete.

This rule was implemented by TVB's Ms. Yu (the new woman in charge of organizing the MSHK and MCI pageants). Not sure if she will revive the Miss Hong Kong overseas recruitment next year or any time soon.

This also happened to Miss China Europe, the pageant which select's Europe's contestant to Miss Chinese International (MCI). Girls from Europe can't compete in MCI now!! So sad!!